Explore the dynamic political landscape of India as BJP takes an early lead, while the INDIA bloc relies on strategic mathematics to challenge Modi’s charismatic chemistry in the 2024 elections.

INDIA bloc relies on strategic mathematics to challenge Modi's charismatic chemistry in the 2024 elections.
INDIA bloc relies on strategic mathematics to challenge Modi’s charismatic chemistry in the 2024 elections.

The next national government will be chosen by the voters in either mid-2024 as scheduled or possibly even earlier. This uncertainty has infused every political move with an election-oriented focus.

Opposition’s Unity Moves

The Opposition is actively pursuing unity among its ranks. During the Mumbai conclave of the INDIA alliance, they decided to expedite seat-sharing arrangements in various states and intensified their criticism of Gautam Adani and Prime Minister Narendra Modi following the emergence of another report concerning the Adani group.

BJP’s Countermove

Coincidentally or consequentially, the ruling BJP responded swiftly during the INDIA alliance’s Mumbai meeting by calling for a special session of Parliament (September 18-22), catching many by surprise. The purpose of this session remains unclear, leading to criticism that it’s becoming a tool for electoral maneuvering.

Exploring Key Agendas:

During the special session, the government may push for “one nation, one election” and has established a committee, led by former President Ram Nath Kovind, to assess its feasibility. This initiative signals the BJP’s intent to make systemic changes in its third term, possibly as a trial run.

Uniform Civil Code and Women’s Reservation Bill

The enactment of the Uniform Civil Code (UCC) during the session is uncertain due to potential opposition from tribal groups, a demographic the BJP has actively courted. Additionally, the Women’s Reservation Bill may be introduced but could face resistance from various OBC groups. Increasing the number of parliamentary seats is also an option to accommodate more women in the Lok Sabha.

Government’s Objectives

The special session may serve as a platform for the BJP to showcase its 2024 election agenda, which they plan to implement if re-elected.

Opposition’s Perspective

Opposition leaders view the session as a diversionary tactic to deflect attention from the Adani controversy and the INDIA alliance’s unity efforts.

Challenges Ahead

The government faces challenges like drought in several regions and growing economic hardships, prompting measures such as reducing gas cylinder prices and potentially increasing farmer subsidies. Rising prices and livelihood concerns pose a significant advantage for the Opposition.

Political Landscape and Opposition Unity

Opposition Unity and INDIA Alliance

The INDIA alliance, during its August 31-September 1 conclave, resolved to contest the upcoming Lok Sabha elections together. They have identified 400 Lok Sabha seats where one-on-one contests are feasible and are actively pursuing seat-sharing arrangements in various states.

Logo and Caste Census Disagreements

However, the Opposition alliance has not yet decided on a convener or logo, raising complex questions about their presence in states like West Bengal and Kerala. Additionally, a disagreement emerged over the issue of conducting a caste census, with Mamata Banerjee opposing it despite its resonance with OBC-dominant parties.

BJP’s Advantages and Opposition’s Strategy

The BJP holds certain advantages in the upcoming 2024 elections, including increased global recognition, political stability promises, and a strong leader in Narendra Modi without family ties. In contrast, the Opposition relies more on numerical calculations than charismatic leadership.

Historical Context

Comparing the current political landscape to past instances of Opposition unity, it becomes evident that the hunger for power and a moral force played pivotal roles in the past. Today, the unity of Opposition leaders stems from their fear that another Modi-led government could potentially end their political careers.

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